I found some writings (prominently on the web) that mention a sort of confidence set (c.f. confidence interval) with the ratio of coverage at which the concerned parameter is believed to belong to the set.
Assume we have observed a sample with a sample statistic
. Further we are given a random set
based on the statistic
to estimate a parameter
.
Then, what does it mean by saying
is a p% confidence set for
? In other words, over which distribution the probability p, at which the
is confidently covered by
, is evaluated?
Note that the parameter is fixed and unknown (to be estimated). Then for each observation
, the derived set
determines whether
or not, which is just an indicator taking a value of 1 or 0, as a probability.
Assuming ranges over the sample space
, then
for some
and not for the others. In this case, we can naively define (replace the integral with sum for discrete random variable
)
as a measurement of “well-coveredness” of by
, where
is the distribution function of
. This is equivalent to define
by the conditional expectation
over the distribution
.
The confusion comes when is derived from an observation and therefore fixed. As noted above,
holds indeed.
This is just a memo, not to claim a sort of insight or discovery. Caveat!